Winning a single seat in an election far far away is the best performance from Tehrik-e-Insaf for more than a decade, with more or less no fundamental political structure and penetration in place I wonder if the excitement surrounding Imran Khan has concrete foundation. Contrary to popular wisdom Imran khan essentially is the hero of the age group I belong to (mostly on wrong side of thirties in case you were wondering). We saw Imran (then the Captain of Pakistan Cricket team) demolish India and England before finally Lifting the world cup. Most of us copied his hair style and tried to bowl quickly. Our generation donated pocket money for Shaukat Khanam Cancer hospital, and still search for his old videos of incredible reverse swing bowling and towering sixes, but did we vote for him? No! Even Today Imran Khan doesn’t look like more than media hype.
The demographics of Pakistan have changed, so has the political matrix but some facts remain unaffected, Peoples Party’s Vote bank in one. It is obvious why PPP would never Oppose Imran Khan as PTI is extending them a huge favor by separating the anti PP votes in the election. For a moment I would accept that the educated youth of Pakistan is looking at Imran; PTI’ biggest hope hence is urban voter. As a result Imran would only divide PML(n) votes strengthening PPP thus. Pakistan economic conditions have worsened in the last three years, and Government plainly has failed to deliver at all fronts yet it is beyond Imran khan or another party to tap into PPP’s secure vote.
According to political analysts PTI can’t win a single seat from Sindh, as it is impossible to penetrate into the urban sindh and challenge the might of MQM even a potentially weak one, and as rural Sindh is dominated by PPP there is hardly any hope. Almost similar picture exists in KPK and Baluchistan. Which means we are looking into Punjab Only? Urban Punjab is PML(n) domain which they seek to hurt a bit, rural Punjab depicts already complicated picture, PML(q), PPP and PML(N) all are strong forces. Tehriek-e-Insaf’ infiltration would be difficult and subsequently limited.
Some sources however indicate that Imran can reach the double figure mark in the next election, which would still be a great achievement but it also means that his party will (somehow and with some external help) acquire the services of a few candidates who can actually win in their constituencies.
Till now Imran has failed to demonstrate substantial street power and his weekly ‘Dharnas” are also losing interest. Elections are not contested on Television screens; even on TV we are yet to see the third face representing Tehrek-e-Insaf after Umer Cheema and Imran Khan himself. On the other hand despite poor show by the government, President Zardari has surprised many by remaining in power for over 3 years now, perhaps there is a bigger surprise waiting for us in the next elections unless there is an unforeseen event which would change everything. As it stands people party can win the next election by better numbers and Imran Khan’ PTI would only complement it.